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From data to policy: building an evidence-based future for skills, work, and learning in Latin America

by Sabur Butt, Hector G. Ceballos, and Michael Fung

Latin America stands at a familiar crossroads. Once again, a technological revolution is reshaping how work gets done, what skills employers value, and how quickly the workforce must adapt. And once again, the region risks being a generation behind.

During the Third Industrial Revolution of the 1970s–1990s, East Asia invested decisively in microelectronics, computing, and technical education. Latin America, consumed by debt crises and macroeconomic instability, missed the wave. The cost was measured not only in lost output but in institutional habits of looking backward while others prepared to look forward. Today, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is unfolding faster than its predecessor, and the region’s central deficit is not money or talent. It is foresight leading to informed interventions.

A structural mismatch between work and learning

Industries now change in cycles of months. University curricula change in cycles of years. That gap is no longer a minor inefficiency; it is the bottleneck that determines whether a country prepares its workforce in time or trails behind it.

The numbers are sobering. Across the six largest Latin American economies, between 19% and 21% of workers face a high probability of automation-related displacement. Almost half work in informal jobs. University dropout rates exceed 50% in several countries, climbing as high as 76% in the Dominican Republic. Students perform consistently below OECD averages in foundational literacy and numeracy. By the time graduates from the educational system enter the labour market, there is already a structural gap between what they can do and what employers want.

What the region needs is not another labour-market report. It needs skills intelligence, a continuous, forward-looking system that informs policymakers what is rising, what is fading, and where the workforce can realistically move next.

Why traditional forecasting falls short

Most forecasting in the region still relies on expert panels, occupational surveys, and static taxonomies that take years to update. These tools were designed for a slower-paced world.

To illustrate the issue, consider how such static taxonomies treat “database management” as a single skill, when the real labour market is moving between MySQL, PostgreSQL, MongoDB, Redis, Cassandra, and now vector databases, each with a different demand trajectory. Or consider the noise in a single automotive dataset, where the same assembly-line job appears as “ensamblador de carrocerías”, “operador de ensamble”, “ensamblador automotriz”, and “técnico en armado de vehículos”. Human annotators cannot keep up; even expert raters disagree on whether two skill descriptions refer to the same thing.

By the time a traditional taxonomy recognizes “prompt engineering” as a skill category, the labor market has already moved on to whatever comes next.

A data-driven alternative, already running

In our paper, we describe an operational deployment at the Institute for the Future of Education at Tecnológico de Monterrey. It is not a proposal; it is a working system (See Figure 1).

Figure 1. The framework links real-time labour market signals to an AI-assisted, expert-validated skills intelligence layer, which in turn informs curriculum design,reskilling pathways, workforce policy, and governance.

The approach combines large language models with retrieval-augmented generation to build dynamic, hierarchical skill taxonomies that update themselves as new job postings flow in. Each new skill is matched semantically against the existing taxonomy. Known skills are normalized to canonical terms. Genuinely new ones are flagged, classified, and added.

In Mexico’s automotive sector alone, the system has mapped more than 11,000 skill variations across 220 hypernym categories, identified 847 unique skills clustered into 12 occupational groups, and tracked the rise of electric-vehicle competencies in real time. Generative AI skills surfaced in the data months before they appeared in any official classification.

The infrastructure required is modest. A taxonomy covering 10,000 skills across major sectors can be maintained on standard cloud infrastructure for roughly $500–1,000 USD per month, within reach of education ministries in developing economies.

From data to policy

Technology alone does not change a system. The harder work is institutional. To shorten the lag between detecting a skill shift and updating a training program (currently 18 to 24 months) in most regions, curriculum committees must meet more often, must accept real-time data alongside surveys, and procurement procedures must allow timely equipment purchases according to the emerging skills.

Governance matters equally. Sustainable implementations bring together labour ministries, education ministries, economic development ministries, national statistics offices, industry associations, and universities. Each contributes something the others cannot: data access, curriculum authority, methodological rigor, domain expertise, and research capacity. No single actor owns skills or intelligence; the legitimacy of the system depends on shared ownership.

Localization also matters. Global taxonomies like ESCO and O*NET are useful starting points, but they need to incorporate regional terminology, indigenous skill categories, and sector-specific competencies. A skill system that does not speak the local language of work will not be trusted by the people meant to use it.

We also acknowledge real-world limitations. Many countries still hire through newspaper classifieds, physical noticeboards, and informal networks. Supplier tiers and small enterprises seldom advertise online. A system built solely on digital postings produces a geographically and structurally biased picture. Integrating offline data sources, replicating the approach across countries, and validating its predictions over time are the necessary next steps.

What success would look like

Executed well, skills intelligence reshapes reskilling itself. Instead of generic, fixed-duration programs, workers receive personalized pathways: a manufacturing technician’s quality-control experience mapped onto automated-systems monitoring; a mid-career professional alerted 12–24 months ahead of emerging demand; a young job-seeker pointed toward a stackable micro-credential that the market will actually reward.

For Latin America, this is more than a technical upgrade. It is a chance to break a historical pattern of arriving late to every industrial revolution and start arriving prepared. The region has the data, the talent, and increasingly the tools. What it has lacked is the institutional capacity to anticipate. That capacity is now within reach.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution will not wait. But for the first time, neither does the evidence.

Reference: Butt, S, Ceballos, HG, and Fung, M (2026) ‘From Data to Policy: Building an Evidence-Based Future for Skills, Work, and Learning in Latin America’ Policy Reviews in Higher Education 

Sabur Butt is a research professor at the Institute for the Future of Education, Tecnológico de Monterrey. His work focuses on artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and dynamic skills taxonomies, with a particular interest in how AI-driven labour-market intelligence can inform education and workforce policy across Latin America.

Hector G Ceballos is Director of the Living Lab & Data Hub of the Institute for the Future of Education (IFE) at Tecnológico de Monterrey. His research spans data science, knowledge engineering, and educational analytics, with a focus on building evidence-based systems that connect higher education to evolving industry and labour-market needs.

Michael Fung is Executive Director of the Institute for the Future of Education at Tecnológico de Monterrey. He was formerly the Deputy Chief Executive at SkillsFuture Singapore (SSG). He led the development of a comprehensive education and training ecosystem under the national SkillsFuture movement, which has become a global benchmark and reference for workforce skills development and lifelong learning across society.


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Leading in complexity: Are higher education leaders ready for the age of austerity?

by Robert Perich, Ladina Rageth, Danya He and Maryna Lakhno

Higher education is at a crossroads. Across Europe and beyond, higher education institutions (HEIs) face increasing financial constraints, shifting political landscapes, and the growing challenge of digital transformation. In this turbulent environment, leadership is not just about managing institutions – it is about navigating uncertainty and ensuring that HEIs remain resilient, innovative, and globally competitive.

Yet, are higher education leaders equipped for this challenge? A recent Swiss national study of senior leaders (detailed findings are available here) provides a reality check. Our study, the first of its kind in Switzerland, examined the career trajectories, competency sets, and strategic concerns of 312 leaders from 38 institutions. What it uncovered was both revealing and troubling: senior leaders felt largely unprepared for the mounting financial and structural pressures facing higher education.

HEIs are no longer just institutions of knowledge – they are complex organisations requiring financial stewardship, strategic foresight, and the ability to manage significant institutional change. And yet, many senior leaders step into their roles with little to no formal management training. In a period where every budget decision can mean the difference between institutional sustainability and decline, this skills gap is more than an inconvenience – it is a challenge.

Who runs Swiss HEIs today?

The study reveals a leadership demographic that is surprisingly homogeneous. Despite years of diversity initiatives, Swiss HEI leadership remains overwhelmingly male (68%) and Swiss (80%). The average senior leader is in their mid-50s, has spent nearly 14 years at their institution, and was more likely than not promoted from within. Internal hires outnumber external appointments (55% vs 45%), and critically, almost 40% of senior leaders entered their positions without prior general management experience.

This reliance on internal promotion, while preserving institutional knowledge, raises an uncomfortable question: Are HEIs prioritising academic credentials and institutional loyalty over strategic and managerial competence? As budget cuts tighten and HEIs are forced to make hard choices, is it enough for leaders to understand academic culture, or must they also master the art of institutional strategy and financial sustainability?

The gap: what competencies do leaders need – and what are they lacking?

Swiss HEIs, like their counterparts worldwide, are complex ecosystems requiring a balance of academic credibility and managerial acumen. Yet, when surveyed, senior leaders overwhelmingly ranked leadership and strategic design capabilities as the most essential competencies, both of which require years of cultivation. They also emphasised managing organisational change, a competency that will become even more critical as institutions face increasing financial pressures and demands for efficiency.

The study highlights a concerning discrepancy between the skills leaders find most important and those in which they feel prepared. Many respondents wished they had received more targeted training in financial management, change leadership, and navigating the political landscape of higher education. Given that nearly half of respondents had never participated in formal leadership training before assuming their roles, it is clear that HEIs have largely relied on a ‘learn on the job’ approach to leadership development.

The perils of academic self-governance

One of the study’s most compelling findings is the tension between traditional academic self-governance and the need for growing professionalisation of higher education leadership. Research universities, in particular, still operate on a model where deans and department heads rotate through leadership roles while maintaining their academic careers. While this system ensures academic legitimacy, it creates discontinuity and limits long-term strategic vision.

By contrast, universities of applied sciences, where leadership positions are more commonly filled through open application processes, exhibit a different pattern: leaders tend to have more professional experience and stronger management backgrounds. This divergence begs an essential question: Is the tradition of academic self-governance still fit for purpose in an era that demands more decisive, financially savvy and agile leadership?

Budget cuts and the leadership challenge ahead

Financial sustainability is now the defining challenge of higher education leadership. The study underscores that senior leaders see budget constraints as the most pressing issue their institutions face, followed closely by digital transformation and the rising demand for research excellence and collaboration. While leaders anticipate increasing demands in these areas over the next decade, many institutions lack systematic training programmes to equip their leaders for these challenges. The findings suggest that without structured leadership development – particularly in financial strategy, political negotiation, and crisis management – HEIs risk falling into reactive rather than proactive decision-making.

Rethinking leadership development in higher education

The data from Swiss HEIs mirror trends seen globally: while the challenges facing HEIs have evolved dramatically, leadership preparation has remained largely static. The fact that nearly 40% of leaders entered their roles with no formal management experience is a stark indicator that institutions must do more to develop leadership talent early in academic careers.

Structured executive education programmes, mentorship initiatives, and cross-institutional leadership networks are critical. The study also raises the question of whether Switzerland – and other countries – should consider national leadership training programmes, similar to those in the Netherlands and Sweden, to systematically equip future leaders with the skills they need.

Indeed, other countries have already taken significant steps in this direction. For instance, the UK has developed a comprehensive suite of leadership development programmes through Advance HE, targeting leaders at various career stages across the higher education sector. Such initiatives provide a valuable model for how leadership can be systematically cultivated, and they underscore the importance of moving beyond ad hoc, institution-specific training efforts.

The future of higher education leadership: a critical juncture

HEIs are facing a defining moment. Financial constraints, political pressures, and the complexities of global education demand leaders who are not just respected scholars but also strategic visionaries. The findings from our study highlight the urgent need for HEIs to rethink how they identify, train, and support their leaders. Will higher education rise to this challenge? Or will institutions continue to rely on traditional models of leadership selection, hoping that academic merits alone will make their leaders fit for the complexities ahead?

Prof Dr Robert Perich is Academic Director, Swiss School of Public Governance SSPG, D-MTEC, ETH Zurich. He was CFO of ETH Zurich for 20 years and, as Vice President for Finance and Controlling, was responsible for financial strategy, budget management, asset management, risk management and the digitalisation of central processes. After completing his studies and doctorate at the University of St. Gallen (HSG), he gained 12 years of experience in various management roles at a major Swiss bank. In addition to earlier teaching activities at the University of St. Gallen, he currently lectures at D-MTEC and the University of Zurich (CHESS). He is also Deputy Chairman of the University Council of the University of Cologne.

Dr Ladina Rageth is Executive Director, Swiss School of Public Governance SSPG, D-MTEC, ETH Zurich. She is a social scientist with extensive experience in research and project management in the academic, public and private sectors. She completed her Master’s degree in Sociology at the University of Zurich and her PhD at ETH Zurich at the Chair of Educational Systems. Her research focuses on the sociology of education, labour market outcomes and the institutionalisation of education systems, with a current emphasis on the functioning and management of HEIs.

Danya He is Research Assistant, Swiss School of Public Governance SSPG, D-MTEC, ETH Zurich. She completed her Masters in Media and Communication Governance at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and worked as a research and teaching associate at the University of Zurich specialising in media and internet governance before joining the SSPG. She brings a wealth of experience in public institutions, media relations and legal affairs and has been recognised for her achievements in educational simulations such as the National Model United Nations.

Dr Maryna Lakhno is the Programme Coordinator at the ETH Swiss School of Public Governance (SSPG), where she manages the school’s continuing education portfolio and oversees its communication. Maryna also contributes to the design of the curriculum and programme activities and is actively involved in research projects within the school. Her doctorate in Public Policy under the Yehuda Elkana Doctoral Fellowship at Central European University in Vienna focused on integrating the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals within higher education. She was awarded the Swiss Government Excellence Scholarship for Foreign Scholars in 2022/23. She co-authored a comprehensive report for the Global Observatory on Academic Freedom.